Future glacier evolution and consequences for the hydrology (FUGE)

Glaciers are intimately related to climate and their changes are known to have a significant impact on the runoff regime of Alpine streams. This project will address questions about the consequences of glacier changes on the hydrology and the water management in the Alpine environment in Switzerland.

Glaciers are an important source of water for large parts of the Alps. Glacier shrinkage caused by climate change affects many sectors that depend on glacier melt water, like hydropower, fresh water supply, irrigation and tourism. At the same time, glacier variations are among the clearest natural indicators of ongoing climate changes. Both these facts call for a better understanding of glacier evolution under climate change and of their consequences on the hydrology.

With regional climate models coupled with downscaling techniques, realistic simulation of precipitation and temperature at the scale of a glacier will be performed. These data will be used as input to a continuous mass balance model and its coupling to a glacier dynamic model will enable large scale modeling of glacier evolution in the Alps. Furthermore, a model will be developed to simulate the temporal water storage in glaciers and the routing of the melt runoff. The runoff time series obtained in this way will form the necessary input to assess how altered stream flow regimes will impact the management and the production of hydropower plants.

The expected reduction of ice volume in the Alps will lead to higher or reduced annual runoff depending on the time scale considered and the glacierized area of the drainage basin. Glacier shrinkage will also affect the timing of the annual peak discharge. These changes in runoff characteristics of high mountain catchments will pose a new challenge to water resource management. The productivity of hydropower systems relying on winter accumulation and summer melt will be affected by these changes and adaptive measures will be necessary for the management of the hydro installations. This project will address these questions in close collaboration with some hydropower companies in Switzerland.

Collaboration:

Prof. Dr. Paolo Burlando and Dr. Francesca Pellicciotti (IfU/ETH Zurich)

Dr. Franco Romerio and Dr. Géraldine Pflieger (University of Geneva).